KARTONO, Kartono and Purwanto, Purwanto and Suripin, Suripin (2021) MODEL PENGELOLAAN BERKELANJUTAN KETERSEDIAAN AIR DI WADUK GEMBONG DALAM UPAYA MITIGASI PERUBAHAN IKLIM. Doctoral thesis, School of Postgraduate Studies.

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Abstract

Manfaat strategis Waduk Gembong di Kabupaten Pati Indonesia sebagai pengendali banjir maupun pendukung ketahanan pangan juga terancam adanya perubahan iklim dan kegiatan anthropogenic dalam penggunaan lahan. Implikasi ekologis dari dinamika ketersediaan airnya urgen dianalisis sebagai bagian dari upaya pengelolaan waduk berkelanjutan dalam mitigasi perubahan iklim. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis fenomena ini dari perspektif lingkungan dengan menggunakan pendekatan permodelan Matematika dan Statistika berbasis data. Hasil penelitian yang didasarkan pada data curah hujan harian lokal, volume air waduk harian, luas kelas lahan dan jumlah penduduk tahunan di Kecamatan Gembong, jawaban kuisioner dan wawancara menunjukkan bahwa (1) pola curah hujan lokal tidak mengikuti tren monotonik menurut uji Mann-Kendall, sedangkan akumulasinya tiap tahun diprediksi meningkat menurut model SARIMA dan ARIMA, (2) ketersediaan air waduk yang dipengaruhi oleh curah hujan berpotensi kelimpahan air setelah waduk mencapai fase saturasi menurut model dinamika pertumbuhan logistik Richards, (3) durasi pelepasannya untuk air suplesi lebih lama daripada operasional existing menurut model penyusutan Newton, sehingga model pertumbuhan dan pelepasan dapat menyusun model ketersediaan air di waduk (4) dinamika penggunaan lahan hutan rakyat yang dipengaruhi oleh pertumbuhan jumlah penduduk diprediksi menyusut menurut model regresi spline dan berdampak pada pengurangan stok karbon ,sedangkan (5) kesempatan berpartisipasi masyarakat pada perlindungan dan pengelolaan waduk perlu ditingkatkan menurut skala Likert. Berdasarkan analisis implikasi ekologisnya dapat disimpulkan bahwa kelimpahan air berpotensi terjadi yang dapat memicu bencana hidrometeorologi lokal, sehingga penanaman pohon yang berkemampuan melindungi ketahanan tanah dan penyerapan karbon lebih diutamakan sebagai aksi mitigasinya, diikuti dengan adaptasi pemilihan jenis tanaman dan pola tanamnya oleh petani.
Kata-kata kunci: Curah hujan, Hidrometeorologi, Implikasi ekologis, Pengelolaan berkelanjutan, Penggunaan lahan

The strategic benefits of the Gembong Reservoir in Pati Regency, Indonesia as flood control and support for food security are also threatened by climate change and anthropogenic activities in land use. The ecological implications of the dynamics of water availability are urgently analyzed as part of sustainable reservoir management efforts in mitigating climate change. This study aims to analyze this phenomenon from an environmental perspective by using a data-based mathematical and statistical modeling approach. The results of the study based on local daily rainfall data, daily reservoir water volume, land class area and annual population in Gembong District, answers to questionnaires and interviews indicate that (1) local rainfall patterns do not follow a monotonic trend according to the Mann-Kendall test, while the accumulation is predicted to increase every year according to the SARIMA and ARIMA models, (2) the availability of reservoir water which is influenced by rainfall has the potential to be abundant after the reservoir reaches the saturation phase according to Richards' logistic growth dynamics model, (3) the duration of the release for supplementary water is longer than the existing operation according to the Newton shrinkage model, so that the growth and release model can construct a model of water availability in the reservoir, (4) the dynamics of community forest land use which is influenced by population growth is predicted to shrink according to the spline regression model and have an impact on reducing carbon stocks, while (5) opportunities for community participation in reservoir protection and management need to be increased according to the Likert scale. Based on the analysis of its ecological implications, it can be concluded that an abundance of water has the potential to trigger local hydrometeorological disasters, so that the planting of trees that are capable of protecting soil resilience and carbon sequestration is prioritized as a mitigation action, followed by adaptation of the selection of plant species and cropping patterns by farmers.
Keywords: Ecological implications, Hydrometeorology, Land use, Rainfall, Sustainable management.

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