RAHIM, Aulia and Soeprobowati, Tri Retnaningsih and Helmi, Muhammad (2025) ANALISIS SPASIOTEMPORAL, STOK KARBON, DAN KERENTANAN EKOSISTEM MANGROVE UNTUK PENGELOLAAN BERKELANJUTAN DI KOTA PARIAMAN, PANTAI UTARA JAWA, DAN PULAU MADURA. Doctoral thesis, UNIVERSITAS DIPONEGORO.

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Abstract

Ekosistem mangrove memiliki peran strategis dalam perlindungan pesisir dan mitigasi perubahan iklim melalui kemampuan menyerap dan menyimpan karbon dalam jumlah besar. Namun, keberadaan ekosistem ini semakin terancam akibat konversi lahan dan tekanan perubahan iklim. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perubahan spasial-temporal tutupan mangrove serta memproyeksikan tren hingga tahun 2055 di Kota Pariaman, Pantai Utara Jawa, dan Pulau Madura. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan citra satelit Landsat dan Sentinel-2 yang diproses melalui Google Earth Engine (GEE), serta pemodelan perubahan tutupan mangrove menggunakan plugin MOLUSCE di QGIS dan klasifikasi random forest. Data lapangan mencakup kondisi biofisik, struktur vegetasi, dan estimasi stok karbon,. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa stok karbon ekosistem tertinggi tercatat di Indramayu (370,95 ± 25,52 Mg C ha⁻¹), sedangkan nilai terendah terdapat di Pariaman. Karbon sedimen menyumbang lebih dari 90% dari total karbon, dengan nilai tertinggi ditemukan di Brebes. Mangrove berumur 15–20 tahun serta tipe hidrogeomorfologi estuary fringe menunjukkan akumulasi karbon yang secara signifikan lebih tinggi. Luasan mangrove meningkat signifikan di Indramayu, Brebes, dan Surabaya sejak 2010, sementara di Pariaman, Pemalang dan Pulau Madura cenderung stagnan atau menurun. Proyeksi hingga 2055 mengindikasikan potensi penurunan stok karbon apabila tidak dilakukan upaya pengelolaan berkelanjutan. Analisis kerentanan dilakukan berdasarkan tiga komponen utama, yaitu eksposur, sensitivitas, dan kapasitas adaptif. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa Pekalongan, Pemalang, dan Pariaman memiliki tingkat kerentanan tinggi, sedangkan Surabaya, Pulau Madura, dan Indramayu memiliki kerentanan lebih rendah karena kapasitas adaptif yang lebih kuat. Hasil penelitian ini menekankan pentingnya pengembangan strategi pengelolaan mangrove yang bersifat spasial, kontekstual, dan adaptif melalui pendekatan Mangrove-AIM. Pendekatan ini bertujuan untuk menjaga keberlanjutan stok karbon serta memperkuat ekosistem terhadap tekanan lingkungan di masa mendatang.
Kata kunci: Mangrove, stok karbon, perubahan spasial-temporal, analisis kerentanan, strategi pengelolaan

Mangrove ecosystems play a vital role in coastal protection and climate change mitigation due to their high capacity to absorb and store carbon. However, these ecosystems are increasingly threatened by land conversion and climate change pressures. This study aims to analyze the spatial-temporal dynamics of mangrove cover and project future trends up to 2055 in key regions including Pariaman City, the Northern Coast of Java, and Madura Island, Indonesia. The analysis employed Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery processed via Google Earth Engine (GEE), with land cover change modeling conducted using the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS and random forest classification. Field data were collected on biophysical conditions, vegetation structure, and carbon stock estimation. The results show that the highest ecosystem carbon stock was recorded in Indramayu (370.95 ± 25.52 Mg C ha⁻¹), while the lowest values were found in Pariaman. Sediment organic carbon accounted for more than 90% of total ecosystem carbon, with the highest value observed in Brebes. Mangroves aged 15–20 years and those located in estuary fringe geomorphic settings exhibited significantly higher carbon accumulation. Since 2010, mangrove cover has increased substantially in Indramayu, Brebes, and Surabaya, whereas in Pariaman, Pemalang, and Madura Island it has remained stagnant or declined. Projections to 2055 indicate a potential reduction in carbon stocks if sustainable management is not implemented. Vulnerability analysis was conducted based on three main components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results indicate that Pekalongan, Pemalang, and Pariaman have high vulnerability levels, while Surabaya, Madura Island, and Indramayu exhibit lower vulnerability due to stronger adaptive capacity. These findings underscore the importance of developing spatially explicit and context-specific mangrove management strategies, as promoted in the Mangrove-AIM framework, to sustain carbon stocks and enhance ecosystem resilience under future environmental pressures.
Keywords: Mangrove, carbon stock, spatial-temporal change, vulnerability assessment, management srategy

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