RAFIF, EGA NANDANA and Yuwanto, Yuwanto (2026) Public Opinion and Policy Legitimacy: A Sentiment Analysis of X (formerly Twitter) Users on the Rationalization of the Education Budget in the 2026 State Budget (APBN) for the Free Nutritious Meal Program. Undergraduate thesis, FAKULTAS ILMU SOSIAL DAN ILMU POLITIK UNIVERSITAS DIPONEGORO.

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Abstract

This study examines how public sentiment on X (formerly Twitter) reflects therationalization of the education budget in the 2026 State Budget (APBN) for the FreeNutritious Meal Program (MBG), and how it reflects public consensus as a dimensionof policy legitimacy within Beetham's (1991) framework. Using lexicon-basedsentiment analysis with the InSet Lexicon, this study analyzes 2,037 tweets collectedover seventeen months (January 2025–May 2026), following crawlingandpreprocessing in Google Colaboratory and RStudio. Data validity was assessedviainter-rater reliability testing against manual coding of a 100-tweet sample. Findingsshow negative sentiment dominates at 66.76% (1,360 tweets), against 28.52%positive (581) and 3.39% neutral (69), with a mean score of −5.405 confirmingdominance extends beyond frequency to intensity. Word frequency analysis identifiesfour thematic clusters — fiscal contestation, political attribution, social impact onvulnerable groups, and evaluation of MBG — the last revealing that criticismtargetsthe financing mechanism rather than MBG's welfare objectives. Negative sentiment
remained dominant throughout, intensifying after key policy events. Interpretedthrough Lippmann's (1922) public opinion theory, Habermas's (1989) digital publicsphere, and Dryzek's (2000) discursive legitimacy, findings indicate a measurable, persistent consensus deficit: the policy is legally grounded but lacks the majorityexpressed consent Beetham (1991) identifies as constitutive of consensual legitimacy. This study offers a replicable computational approach to measuring one empirical
dimension of policy legitimacy through social media discourse, while acknowledgingthe limits of X users as a self-selected, non-representative proxy for Indonesian publicopinion. Keywords: public sentiment, policy legitimacy, sentiment analysis, InSet Lexicon, digital public sphere, education budget rationalization, X (Twitter), Free NutritiousMeal Program.
189 Ilmu Pemerintahan 2026

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