TJAHJONO, Heri and Suripin, Suripin and Kismartini, Kismartini (2019) ANALISIS SPASIAL RISIKO LONGSORAN DAN PENGELOLAAN RISIKO BENCANA LONGSORAN BERBASIS MASYARAKAT DI KOTA SEMARANG. Doctoral thesis, School of Postgraduate Studies.

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Abstract

Bencana longsoran di Jawa Tengah tahun 2011-2015 frekuensinya paling tinggi dibandingkan bencana lainnya yaitu 568 kejadian. Kejadian tanah longsor di Kota Semarang menunjukkan adanya kenaikan. Tahun 2012 dari 39 kejadian tanah longsor menjadi 123 kejadian pada tahun 2014. Meningkatnya kejadian bencana longsoran menimbulkan pertanyaan bagaimanakah pengelolaan bencana longsoran
yang dilakukan oleh stakeholder?, bagaimanakah risiko bencana yang terjadi?, bagaimanakah kapasitas masyarakatnya?. Hal ini tentunya butuh perhatian yang
lebih serius. Penelitian ini bertujuan (1) menganalisis pengelolaan risiko bencana longsoran yang dilakukan oleh masyarakat/stakeholder, (2) menganalisis tingkat risiko bencana longsoran di Kota Semarang, (3) menentukan prioritas pelaksanaan mitigasi bencana longsoran (4) mengembangkan model (strategi) pengelolaan pengurangan risiko bencana longsoran berbasis masyarakat.
Populasi penelitian berupa kondisi fisik medan dan masyarakat yang tinggal di Kota Semarang. Variabel yang diteliti (1) variabel pengelolaan risiko bencana longsoran; (2) varibel tingkat risiko bencana longsoran, yang terdiri dari sub variabel ancaman, kerentanan, dan kapasitas masyarakat; (3) variabel prioritas
pelaksanaan mitigasi bencana longsoran; (4)variabel pengembangan model/strategi pengurangan risiko bencana longsoran. Unit analisisnya berupa unit medan dan
administrasi. Sampel kondisi fisik medan sejumlah 60 unit medan. Sampel masyarakat ditentukan secara purposive, yaitu memilih orang di daerah yang pernah mengalami longsoran atau di daerah potensial longsor sejumlah 200 orang yang
tersebar mengikuti sampel unit medan. Data primer dikumpulkan dengan survei lapangan, angket dan wawancara. Analisis data dilakukan dengan pengharkatan dan overlay peta dengan teknologi SIG.
Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa (1) pengelolaan risiko bencana longsoran oleh masyarakat didominasi kriteria rendah (35%) dan sangat rendah (25%); (2) tingkat risiko bencana longsoran yang terjadi, yaitu tingkat risiko rendah
(13.708,1 ha), risiko sedang (7.504,1 ha) dan risiko tinggi (dengan luas 377,8 ha).
Variasi risiko terjadi karena nilai ancaman, nilai kerentanan dan nilai kapasitas masyarakat berbeda-beda; (3) ada 5 kelas prioritas pelaksanaan mitigasi bencana, dengan 1 sebagai prioritas utama; (4) pengembangan model (strategi) pengurangan risiko bencana longsoran merupakan penggabungan dari model yang ada dengan menambahkan tindakan pengurangan risiko, yaitu pengurangan ancaman,
pengurangan kerentanan, dan peningkatan kapasitas masyarakat.
Berdasarkan hasil penelitian disarankan pemerintah dapat mendorong masyarakat dan swasta untuk (1) meningkatkan pengelolaan risiko bencana longsoran, (2) menurunkan ancaman, menurunkan kerentanan dan meningkatkan
kapasitas masyarakat, (3) menentukan kelas wilayah prioritas mitigasi bencana.
Model (strategi) pengurangan risiko bencana longsoran yang telah dikembangkan disarankan untuk dapat diterapkan oleh pemerintah dengan memasukkan ke dalam Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah (RTRW) di Kota Semarang.
Kata Kunci: Analisis Spasial, Risiko Longsoran, Kota Semarang

The frequency of landslides in Central Java in 2011-2015 was the highest frequency compared to other disasters, namely 568 events. Landslides in the Semarang City showed an increase. In 2012, from 39 landslides to 123 incidents in 2014. The increase in landslides disaster occurs raises the question of how is the management of landslides carried out by stakeholders? How the risk of disasters occurring? How the capacity of the community? This problem of course requires more serious attention.
This research aims to (1) analyze the risk management of landslide disasters carried out by the community/ stakeholders, (2) analyze the level of risk of landslide disasters in the city of Semarang, (3) determine priorities for the implementation of landslide disaster mitigation (4) develop models (strategies) for risk reduction management landslide disasters based on community in Semarang City.
The research population is physical condition of the terrain and the people who live in the Semarang City. Variables researched (1) landslide disaster risk management variables; (2) variable levels of landslide disaster risk, consisting of sub-variables
threats, vulnerabilities, and community capacity; (3) priority variables for the implementation of landslide disaster mitigation; (4) variable development models /
strategies for landslide disaster risk reduction. The unit of analysis is the terrain and administration unit. Samples of terrain physical conditions were 60 terrain units. The
community sample was determined purposively, that’s choosing people in areas that have experienced landslides or in areas with a potential for landslides with 200 people
scattered following the terrain unit sample. Primary data were collected by field surveys, questionnaires and interviews. Data analysis was performed by scoring and map overlays with GIS (Geographic Information System) technology.
The results showed that (1) landslide disaster risk management by the community was dominated by low criteria (35%) and very low (25%); (2) the level of risk of landslides that occur, it’s the level of low risk (13,708.1 ha), moderate risk (7,504.1 ha)
and high risk (with an area of 377.8 ha). Variations in risk occur because the value of threats, vulnerability values and community capacity values vary; (3) there are 5 priority classes for implementing disaster mitigation, with priority class 1 as the main priority; (4) developing a model (strategy) for landslide disaster risk reduction is an amalgamation of the existing model by adding risk reduction measures, that reducing threats, reducing vulnerabilities, and increasing community capacity.
Based on the research results it is suggested that the government can encourage the public and private sector to (1) improve landslide disaster risk management, (2) reduce threats, reduce vulnerability and increase community capacity, (3) determine priority class areas for disaster mitigation, (4) The landslide risk reduction model (strategy) that has been developed is suggested to be implemented by the government
by incorporating it into the Regional Spatial Plan (RTRW) in the Semarang City.
Keywords: Spatial Analysis, landslides Risk, Semarang City

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