A'yun, Nadila Qurrota and Budiraharjo, Kustopo and Handayani, Migie (2026) ANALISIS POTENSI DAN FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PRODUKSI KOMODITAS TANAMAN PANGAN PADI (Oryza sativa L.) DI WILAYAH JAWA TENGAH. Undergraduate thesis, Fakultas Peternakan dan Pertanian, Universitas Diponegoro.

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the level of specialization and comparative advantage of rice production in 19 districts in Central Java Province using the LQ and dLQ approaches, classify growth performance and production contributions using Klassen Typology analysis, assess production trend patterns in the last ten years along with their projections for the next five years using least square trend analysis and the Double Exponential Smoothing method, and test the influence of production factors on rice production levels between regions using a pane data regression model; with the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) approach. This study was conducted in September-November 2025 in Central Java. The research method used is secondary data analysis with the main source from BPS. The data used is panel data covering 19 districts with a 10-year time span (2015-2024), including variables of rice production, population, rice prices at the farm level, and productivity. The analysis was conducted using the LQ and dLQ methods, Klassen typology, least squares analysis and Double Exponential Smoothing, as well as a cross-regional time series regression model using the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) approach. The results of the study show that: 1) there are 11 districts included in the prospective-basis area, 8 districts included in the non-prospective-basis area; 2) 18 districts in the Central Java region are included in quadrant I of the Klassen typology and there is only 1 district included in quadrant III, namely Grobogan Regency and there are no areas included in quadrant II and quadrant IV; 3) the pattern of rice production trend analysis over the last 10 years shows a downward trend (negative) and the results of rice production forecasts for the next 5 years are 8,775,583.74 tons in 2025, 8,547,665.02 tons in 2026, 8,319,746.30 tons in 2027, 8,091,827.58 tons in 2028, and 7,863,908.86 tons in 2029; 4) Population, rice prices at the farmer level, and land productivity simultaneously influence rice production in Central Java. The partial influence of each variable is that only land productivity has a strong and direct influence on rice production, while the price and population variables partially have no direct or weak influence on rice production in Central Java. The research concluded that Central Java still holds a key position as a rice production base, although performance varies across districts. Rice production is showing a downward trend that is expected to continue. Land productivity is the primary factor determining production capacity in the province.

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