YUDIARTONO, Yudiartono and Windarta, Jaka and Adiarso, Adiarso (2023) TRANSISI ENERGI MELALUI PENERAPAN OPTIMAL EBT DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL LEAP. Masters thesis, UNIVERSITAS DIPONEGORO.

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Abstract

Tujuan dari tesis ini adalah analisis dekarbonisasi pasokan dan kebutuhan energi nasional jangka panjang. Pada sisi kebutuhan dipertimbangkan pengembangan kendaraan listrik dan pemanfaatan bahan bakar nabati (BBN) untuk sektor transportasi, serta penerapan kompor induksi dan pengembangan jaringan gas bumi di perkotaan (jargas) untuk sektor Rumah Tangga. Pada sisi pasokan, sektor ketenagalistrikan mempertimbangkan target bauran energi primer berbasis EBT sesuai dengan target KEN 2014. Perangkat Lunak LEAP (Low Emission Analysis Platform) melakukan evaluasi pasokan dan kebutuhan energi jangka panjang periode 2020 sampai 2050. Pada tahun 2050, penerapan kendaraan listrik di sektor transportasi dan penerapan kompor induksi di sektor rumah tangga akan menaikkan demand listrik sebesar 20%, dari 674,46 juta SBM menjadi 809,03 juta SBM. Di sisi lain, penerapan kendaraan listrik secara optimal akan menurunkan konsumsi BBM sebesar 48%, dr 659,93 juta SBM menjadi 340,37 juta SBM. Selain itu, penerapan kompor induksi secara luas di sektor Rumah Tangga akan menurunkan konsumsi LPG sebesar 75%, dari 115,78 juta SBM menjadi 29,5 juta SBM. Pada sektor ketenagalistrikan, untuk memenuhi target bauran energi EBT, kapasitas total pembangkit EBT tahun 2025 mencapai 28,14 GW, meningkat lebih dr 4 kali menjadi 116,93 GW tahun 2050. Teknologi EBT yg dikembangkan adalah tenaga air (PLTA, PLTM, PLTA Pump Storage), tenaga biomasa (PLTBm, co-firing PLTUB), PLTS (rooftop solar PV, floating solar PV, ground mounted solar PV), PLTP, dan PLTN. Biaya investasi total yg dibutuhkan selama 30 thn sebesar 48.180,8 juta USD (Rp. 722,71 trilyun atau Rp. 24 trilyun/th).
Kata Kunci: Dekarbonisasi, EBT, LEAP

The aim of this thesis is to analyze the decarbonization of long-term national energy supply and demand. On the demand side, the development of electric vehicles and the utilization of biofuels (BBN) for the transport sector were considered, as were the application of induction stoves and the development of natural gas networks in urban areas (jargas) for the household sector. On the supply side, the electricity sector considers the renewable-based primary energy mix target in accordance with the KEN 2014 target. The LEAP (Low Emission Analysis Platform) software evaluates long-term energy supply and demand for the period 2020–2050. In 2050, the optimization of electric vehicles in the transportation sector and the application of induction stoves in the household sector will increase electricity demand by 20%, from 674.46 million SBM to 809.03 million SBM. On the other hand, optimal implementation of electric vehicles will reduce fuel consumption by 48%, from 659.93 million SBM to 340.37 million SBM. In addition, widespread implementation of induction stoves in the household sector will reduce LPG consumption by 75%, from 115.78 million SBM to 29.5 million SBM. In the electricity sector, to fulfill the target of a renewable energy mix, the total capacity of renewable energy generation in 2025 reached 28.14 GW, increasing more than 4 times to 116.93 GW in 2050. Renewable energy technologies developed are hydropower, pumped hydro storage, biomass power, biomass co-firing for coal power plants, solar PV (rooftop solar PV, floating solar PV, ground-mounted solar PV), geothermal power plants, and nuclear power plants. The total investment cost required for 30 years is 48,180.8 million USD (IDR 722.71 trillion, or IDR 24 trillion per year).
Keywords: Decarbonization, NRE, LEAP

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